Automated Supply and Demand Estimation Framework Enables Capturing of >80% Market Demand and Competition

Case Study

Automated Supply and Demand Estimation Framework Enables Capturing of >80% Market Demand and Competition for a Real Estate Investment Trust

Business Objective

Our client, a healthcare Real Estate Investment Trust, wanted to understand future senior housing supply/demand dynamics to plan investment strategies.

The client wanted us to build submarket (micro-market) regions for senior housing portfolio and a comprehensive Supply inventory database. They wanted to implement a rule-based engine to estimate future demand and develop an automated framework to continuously estimate supply and demand metrics.

Challenges

  • Lack of consolidated supply sources and data on senior housing occupancy
  • Data quality and completeness issues
  • Data sufficiency issues with multiple attributes within available datasets

Solution Methodology 

  • Utilized existing data to understand prevailing trends and optimized market boundary maximizing demand coverage for each property.
  • Combined census tracts around each property to form submarkets.
  • Sourced property inventory data from multiple vendors and built Name – Entity & Address Match logic to de-duplicate data.
  • Analyzed historical construction trends to estimate likely opening dates.
  • Consolidated supply, demographic, and occupancy rate data and built a linear regression model to predict demand at the submarket level and identify key drivers of demand.

Business Impact

  • Developed proprietary senior housing submarkets capturing >80% market demand
  • Predicted demand & Identified areas with low supply for potential investment opportunities
  • Automated data acquisition process enabling less manual effort and faster strategic decisions
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